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The 2024 US election results might not be available on November 5 due to several factors. Voting methods, such as mail-in ballots, can lead to delays in counting. Additionally, various states have different regulations and processes for tabulating votes, which may prolong the overall timeline. Understanding these complexities is essential for voters anticipating the outcome of this crucial election.
The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 5, yet the outcome of the closely contested battle between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump might remain uncertain for several days following the closing of the polls.
The U.S. presidential election is set for November 5, but the results of the closely contested race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump may not be immediately available after the polls close. As ballots are counted, one candidate could initially lead based on early returns, only for the other to close the gap as additional votes are tallied.
In the 2020 election, some states experienced a "red mirage," where Trump appeared to be ahead on election night, but a subsequent "blue shift" allowed Democrat Joe Biden to overtake him. This phenomenon was leveraged by Trump to promote false claims that the election had been stolen.
No irregularities had occurred; instead, the Democratic voter base tends to be concentrated in populous urban areas, where counting takes longer. Additionally, Democrats have embraced mail-in voting more than Republicans, especially after Trump's unfounded allegations about the reliability of mail ballots, which are typically slower to count than in-person votes. In 2024, Trump has expressed both support for and criticism of early and mail-in voting.
According to an early vote tracker from the University of Florida's Election Lab, Democrats are again leading Republicans in mail-in ballots this year, although Republicans are narrowing the gap.
There are seven battleground states that will likely determine the election outcome, each with its own rules for ballot handling and counting. Here's what to anticipate on Election Day and beyond:
In Arizona, mail-in voting is extremely popular; nearly 90% of voters cast their ballots early, primarily by mail, in 2020. Election officials can start processing and tabulating mail ballots upon receipt, but results can't be disclosed until one hour after polls close. Any mail ballots dropped off on Election Day can't be processed until the polls have closed, and these "late early" votes can represent a significant portion of the total ballots, taking days to count.
Initial results on election night are expected to favor Harris, reflecting early votes, but this may shift toward Trump as Election Day votes are tallied.
In Georgia, early in-person voting is prevalent, with officials anticipating that 65% to 70% of ballots will be cast early. Absentee or mail ballots, expected to make up around 5% of the total, can be processed starting two weeks prior to the election, though counting can only begin on Election Day. All early votes must be counted and reported by 8 p.m. ET on election night, potentially creating an early "blue mirage" favoring Harris. Officials aim to have all votes tallied by midnight.
Additionally, ballots from overseas and military voters will be accepted for up to three days after Election Day if they are postmarked by November 5. Given that more than 21,000 such ballots have been requested, the outcome may remain unresolved until these votes are counted.
Michigan has instituted early in-person voting for the first time since the 2020 election and allows larger jurisdictions to begin processing mail ballots eight days before Election Day. Smaller jurisdictions can start processing ballots the day before. These changes are expected to enable quicker reporting of results compared to 2020, when mail ballots were not processed early, leading to a "red mirage" on election night.
Nevada's slow vote counting during the 2020 election became the subject of numerous memes, but officials claim improvements should expedite the process this year. Counties are now permitted to start processing mail ballots on October 21, and early in-person votes can begin being counted on Election Day at 8 a.m. PT. Despite these changes, late-arriving mail ballots—which can be counted if postmarked by November 5—could again create a "blue shift" in favor of Harris.
In North Carolina, election officials start processing mail ballots before Election Day. After polls close, initial results will likely include mostly mail-in and early votes. Election Day votes will be counted throughout the evening, with full results anticipated by midnight. If the election is close, the outcome may remain uncertain for a week or more due to absentee ballots from overseas and military voters being tallied during a ten-day canvass period following Election Day.
Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state, did not declare a clear winner in 2020 until four days after Election Day. This year, the state continues to require that mail ballots cannot be processed until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Early results may show Trump leading based on in-person votes, but this advantage is expected to diminish as mail ballots are counted, echoing the pattern from 2020 that led to Trump's false claims of fraud.
Wisconsin, like Pennsylvania, does not allow early processing of mail ballots, which can delay reporting of results. Many of the state’s largest cities transport mail ballots to a central location for counting, potentially leading to large batches of votes being reported simultaneously after polls close. This pattern was evident in 2020, where a significant influx of absentee ballots propelled Biden into the lead, causing unfounded claims of fraud from Trump and his allies.
In summary, while the election on November 5 is expected to be closely contested, various factors related to mail-in voting, ballot processing times, and the distribution of voters will likely delay the announcement of a clear winner for several days.
For questions or comments write to writers@bostonbrandmedia.com
Source: NDTV
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