Global Electric Car Fleet Shows Robust Growth, Anticipates 17 Million Sales in 2024

‍Despite near-term challenges in some markets, based on today's policy settings, almost 1 in 3 cars on the roads in China by 2030 is set to be electric, and almost 1 in 5 in both United States and European Union

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The latest edition of the IEA's annual Global EV Outlook reveals that the electric vehicle (EV) market is poised for substantial growth, with more than one in five cars sold worldwide expected to be electric this year. The Outlook, released today, forecasts that global electric car sales will remain strong in 2024, reaching approximately 17 million by year-end. In the first quarter of 2024, sales surged by about 25% compared to the same period in 2023, indicating a continuation of the robust growth trend observed in previous years.

China is anticipated to lead the charge, with electric car sales projected to reach around 10 million in 2024, constituting about 45% of all car sales in the country. In the United States, roughly one in nine cars sold is expected to be electric, while in Europe, electric cars are forecasted to represent about one in four car sales, despite challenges such as the phase-out of subsidies in some countries.

The momentum behind electric cars builds on a record-breaking 2023, where global electric car sales soared by 35% to almost 14 million. While demand remains concentrated in regions like China, Europe, and the United States, growth is also picking up in emerging markets like Vietnam and Thailand.

Substantial investment in the electric vehicle supply chain, ongoing policy support, and declining prices of EVs and batteries are expected to drive further growth in the coming years. Under current policy settings, every other car sold globally is projected to be electric by 2035, with potential for even higher adoption rates if countries meet their energy and climate pledges.

Manufacturers have made significant strides to meet governments' strengthening EV ambitions, with substantial investments in battery production capacity. While upfront costs of EVs may still be higher in some regions, improving battery technologies and market competition are expected to drive down prices over time.

Ensuring adequate public charging infrastructure is crucial for sustained EV growth. While the number of public charging points increased by 40% in 2023, growth in fast chargers outpaced slower ones. However, to meet government pledges, charging networks need to expand significantly by 2035. Policymakers must also carefully plan to prevent strain on electricity grids due to increased demand from charging.

Source: iea