Holiday Flights May Carry Fewer Passengers Due to Warming Climate

As global temperatures rise, airlines may be forced to reduce the number of passengers on holiday flights. Warmer weather affects air density, making it harder for planes to take off with full loads, especially at high-altitude airports or during peak heat. This could lead to lighter aircraft loads, higher operational costs, and potential disruptions for travelers during busy holiday seasons. The aviation industry may need to adapt flight operations to ensure safety and efficiency in a warming climate.

Climate change could lead to aircraft at European airports carrying fewer passengers in the future due to rising temperatures. Researchers at the University of Reading examined how increasing heat influences aircraft take-off performance across 30 European airports. Higher temperatures result in thinner air, which reduces lift - the upward force planes need to take off.

The team focused their analysis on the Airbus A320, a widely used plane for short- and mid-range European routes. They found that, by the 2060s, airports with shorter runways may need to cut take-off weight by the equivalent of about 10 passengers per flight during hotter months.

Dr. Jonny Williams, the study's lead author, explained that global warming will impact both individuals and industries, potentially driving up summer travel costs. Fewer passengers per plane could mean higher ticket prices for popular destinations such as Spain, Italy, and Greece.

He pointed out that hot days requiring weight restrictions at smaller airports - currently a rare occurrence - could become frequent, happening several days each week by mid-century. Dr. Williams also emphasized that although aviation contributes to climate change, the industry will also increasingly suffer its consequences.

The study identified four tourist-heavy locations likely to be most affected due to their short runways: Chios in Greece, Pantelleria and Rome Ciampino in Italy, and San Sebastian in Spain. With extreme heat events expected to become more frequent, these airports will be forced to further limit aircraft weight, reducing efficiency and airline profits.

Larger hubs like Heathrow and Gatwick, with longer runways, are more resilient for aircraft like the A320. However, they may still face operational hurdles with larger jets such as the Airbus A380, which require even more runway length. Beyond limiting passenger numbers, heat may also force airlines to shift flight schedules to cooler times of day. Additionally, rising temperatures could accelerate wear and tear on runways, increasing the need for repairs and maintenance.

The researchers stressed that pursuing a sustainable emissions path could help stabilize these trends, whereas continued high emissions would lead to more severe impacts. Future research will explore other contributing factors such as humidity levels and shifting wind conditions that could also affect aircraft performance during take-off.

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Source: sciencedaily‍