Ocean changes may explain early surge in deadly storms this year

An unusual rise in deadly storms early in the year has caught the attention of scientists, who believe changes in ocean conditions could be to blame. Shifts in sea temperatures and currents may be intensifying storm activity and altering weather patterns. These oceanic anomalies are prompting researchers to study their link to the surge in extreme weather, potentially offering new insights into how climate change is influencing storm frequency and severity around the world.

A series of deadly, destructive tornado events in recent weeks has underscored what’s turning out to be an unusually stormy start to the year across the United States.

Although the heart of severe thunderstorm season typically arrives later, the early surge in violent weather is raising questions. The answer may lie in the warm waters of the Gulf - officially dubbed the Gulf of America by the U.S., though still widely known as the Gulf of Mexico - thanks to its geographic position near the U.S.

The United States sees more severe thunderstorms and tornadoes than anywhere else because it sits at the intersection of key atmospheric factors. The Gulf sends up large volumes of hot, humid air, which acts as fuel for thunderstorms. When this moist air heads north and runs into cold air descending from Canada, powerful storms are likely - especially in areas stretching from the Plains to just west of the Appalachian Mountains.

The warmer and wetter the air, the more intense these storms become. And currently, the Gulf has been unusually warm. After hitting record highs in parts of 2023 and 2024, its temperatures have stayed elevated, fueling a stormy early season.

Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central, explains that warmer seas lead to greater evaporation, adding more moisture to the air - something well understood in climate science.

The heat retained by the Gulf acts like a steamy cauldron, enhancing the energy available to storms. Though warm, moist air is a regular visitor from the Gulf, storms still need a spark - typically a cold front—to really explode in strength.

Winkley notes that once that spark arrives, climate change increases the chances of heavy rain and more severe storms.

Three severe tornado events have already struck within just a few weeks. In mid-March, over 100 tornadoes formed alongside baseball-sized hail and hurricane-force winds, resulting in at least 42 deaths. At the end of March, another system generated more than 50 tornadoes and killed seven more people.

April started with another disaster: a massive tornado outbreak struck regions still recovering from March’s devastation. More than 130 tornadoes tore through the eastern U.S., killing at least 26 people. Simultaneously, record-breaking rainfall triggered widespread flooding across the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, with water levels expected to remain high for weeks.

Although scientists can’t yet definitively link these exact tornado events to climate change, earlier research suggests that the ingredients needed for such severe outbreaks are becoming more common in a warming climate.

Data from Climate Central shows that severe thunderstorm conditions now occur roughly two weeks more often during spring than they did in 1979, especially across states in the South and Midwest.

When it comes to tornadoes, determining a direct connection to climate change is harder. Their brief, unpredictable nature and historical underreporting make long-term trends difficult to track. Modern radar has improved detection, but earlier decades had gaps.

According to NOAA, the annual number of tornadoes - excluding the weakest EF0 category - has stayed fairly stable since the 1950s.

However, when tornadoes do happen now, they’re more likely to appear in large swarms rather than isolated clusters. A 2016 study found that such outbreaks are becoming more frequent, particularly the most extreme ones.

There’s also been a noticeable geographical shift in tornado activity. Winkley points out that more tornadoes are now hitting the lower Midwest and Deep South. As the planet warms, severe weather seems to be gravitating in that direction.

So far in 2025, the U.S. has seen close to 500 tornado reports - well above the usual count of fewer than 300 by early April, based on Storm Prediction Center data.

The first few months of both 2023 and 2024 were also busy, especially with warmer-than-average Gulf temperatures. Activity spiked in late spring last year, and 2023 finished as one of the most tornado-active years in the past decade and a half, second only to 2017.

Between March 27 and April 7, tornadoes were reported every day for nearly two weeks. That period alone accounted for around 225 reports - almost half of 2025’s total so far.

And it’s not just twisters. The SPC has received over 3,200 reports of damaging winds as of April 10 - more than twice the normal number for this point in the year.

Although May is traditionally the peak of tornado season, April may still have more turbulence in store. Long-range forecasts are already hinting at the potential for another round of widespread and dangerous storms to hit the central U.S. later this month.

For questions or comments write to contactus@bostonbrandmedia.com

Source: CNN‍