Trump Promises Mass Deportation; Builders Warn of Higher Costs

Donald Trump has pledged to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, prompting significant concern from builders and construction industry leaders. They warn that such mass deportations could deplete their workforce, resulting in a labor shortage. This could ultimately drive up construction costs and negatively impact the housing market. The situation raises questions about the economic implications of Trump's immigration policies on the industry.

‍Both presidential candidates vow to increase housing construction. However, one candidate has pledged to deport hundreds of thousands of the workers who build those homes.

Former President Donald Trump’s commitment to “initiate the largest deportation operation in U.S. history” would hinder construction companies already dealing with labor shortages and could drive home prices to unprecedented levels, according to industry leaders, contractors, and economists.

Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, stated, “This would be harmful to the construction sector and our labor supply and would worsen our housing affordability challenges.” The trade organization considers foreign workers, regardless of their legal status, “an essential and adaptable labor source” for builders, estimating they occupy 30% of trade positions such as carpentry, plastering, masonry, and electrical work.

“If I reduce my income by half or increase my prices, the burden ultimately falls on the homeowner,” said Brent Taylor, President of Taylor Construction Group in Tampa, Florida.

As of 2022, approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants resided in the U.S., a decrease from a peak of 11.8 million in 2007. The construction industry employs about 1.5 million undocumented workers, making up 13% of its total workforce, a larger proportion than in any other sector, according to data provided by the Pew Research Center to NBC News. The concentration of undocumented workers is particularly high in states like Florida and Texas, and more so in residential compared to commercial construction.

Brent Taylor remarked that home building has become “extremely challenging in recent years, and it appears to be worsening.” His small Tampa-based company employs subcontractors for all labor, and he is often unaware of their legal status when they arrive on his job site.

With the labor market already tight, the U.S. construction sector is still attempting to fill 370,000 job openings, according to federal statistics. Taylor noted that if the labor pool shrinks further, “I could only complete 10 jobs a year instead of 20.” He emphasized that “either my income decreases significantly, or I must raise prices, which ultimately impacts the homeowner.”

Rhetoric or Reality?

Trump has not provided details on how his proposed “whole of government” initiative to remove up to 20 million individuals—far exceeding the undocumented population—would function, but he has made it a cornerstone of his housing agenda. The Republican nominee claims that mass deportations would create housing opportunities for U.S. citizens and lower prices, although most economists disagree. Additionally, analysts have expressed skepticism regarding the logistical feasibility, suggesting the costs could be “astronomical.” Many in the construction industry also doubt Trump will follow through on his promises.

Stan Marek, CEO of the Marek Family of Companies, a specialty subcontracting firm based in Texas, stated that colleagues in the industry “don’t believe it will happen.” He warned that “you would lose so many workers that you couldn’t assemble a crew to frame a house.”

Bryan Dunn, a senior vice president at Big-D Construction in Arizona, described the idea of relocating so many individuals as “almost laughable.” He noted that the proposal leaves industry professionals “trying to discern how much is merely political fearmongering.”

Although Trump has a history of proposing radical ideas without serious follow-through, such as purchasing Greenland, he has also embraced policies that reshape political discourse despite facing significant opposition and legal challenges. His administration previously diverted Pentagon funds to construct a border wall, enacted a travel ban from several Muslim-majority nations, and separated migrant children from their parents.

Trump has intensified his deportation narrative during his campaign, sometimes using racially charged language, suggesting that thousands of immigrants are responsible for crimes due to “it’s in their genes.” He recently accused immigrant gangs of having “invaded and conquered” cities like Aurora, Colorado, a claim local officials have disputed, stating they require federal assistance but reject mass deportations. Nevertheless, recent polls indicate widespread support for deporting individuals who entered the U.S. illegally.

In a statement, Taylor Rogers, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, asserted that “President Trump’s mass deportation of illegal immigrants will not only enhance community safety but also relieve Americans from the financial burden for years to come,” referring to undocumented immigrants’ utilization of taxpayer-funded social services and federal programs.

Trump campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified that the former president’s comments about genetics were “clearly referring to murderers, not migrants.”

Tobin expressed that the NAHB has serious concerns about the deportation proposal but is engaging with both campaigns. The organization has urged policymakers to “allow builders to build” by reducing zoning and regulatory barriers and improving access to financing for developers.

Tobin stressed, “The immigration rhetoric is at an all-time high. We need to have a serious dialogue in this country regarding immigration policy and reform, and we can no longer postpone it.”

Marek, a long-time advocate for creating more opportunities for undocumented workers in construction, remarked that reforms are long overdue. He emphasized, “I do everything I can to ensure everyone is legal,” even as the industry’s demand for low-cost labor has fostered a shadow economy that often exploits the undocumented workers it relies on.

“We need these workers. They’ve been constructing our homes for 30 years,” he noted. “Losing them would devastate our companies, the industry, and the economy.”

The Math Doesn’t Add Up

Evidence suggests that foreign-born construction workers contribute to stabilizing the housing market. An analysis released in December 2022 by the George W. Bush Institute and Southern Methodist University found that U.S. metro areas with rapidly growing immigrant populations had the lowest building costs.

According to the authors, “Immigrant construction workers in Sun Belt cities like Raleigh, Nashville, Houston, and San Antonio have helped these areas maintain their housing cost advantages over coastal cities despite a surge in housing demand.”

However, builders already need many more workers. Ron Hetrick, a senior labor economist at the workforce analytics firm Lightcast, stated that “the math does not support the impact of mass deportations.” He asserted that such a move would be “incredibly disruptive” and could have a “very significant adverse effect on home construction.”

The construction industry has seen private employers adding jobs for the past decade, with employment levels exceeding 8 million, representing over 1 million more positions since the pandemic, according to payroll processor ADP. Hetrick noted, however, that “the average high school student does not aspire to work in construction,” and the current workforce is aging, with the typical homebuilder being 57 years old.

He believes that undocumented workers would likely leave before any national deportation initiative, even though many have lived in the U.S. for more than a decade. Hetrick anticipates that such a policy could also lead to an exodus of individuals with legal authorization.

“That’s precisely what occurred in Florida,” he remarked.

Lessons from the Past

In 2022, Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, enacted a series of restrictions and penalties aimed at discouraging the employment of undocumented workers. Many immigrant workers hastily departed the state even before these policies took effect, with social media footage showing numerous construction sites lying vacant.

Luciano, a carpenter originally from Mexico who has worked on residential projects throughout South Florida for the past decade, remarked, “These laws demonstrate their complete misunderstanding of our work.” He requested to be identified by his first name due to his lack of legal immigration status, despite living in the U.S. for over 20 years. He noted that workers on job sites “have a set entry time but no exit time,” often working 70-hour weeks in extreme heat and rain.

Brent Taylor recalled how fellow builders in Florida panicked during the statewide crackdown, but he reassured them, saying, “Just wait six months. We don’t have enough personnel to enforce it, so they will return.”

Later, Republican state Rep. Rick Roth, who voted for the law, acknowledged that Florida was unprepared for the instability it would cause, urging immigrant residents not to flee, claiming the law “is not as severe as you may have heard.”

Some workers returned upon realizing that enforcement of the policies was lax, Taylor shared, “Before long, everything was back to normal.”

DeSantis’ office did not respond to a request for comment.

When Arizona enacted some of the strictest immigration laws in 2010, Dunn was working in Tempe as an executive at a construction management firm. He observed that as the legislation rolled out, “many people left, and they never returned.”

He stated that by the time much of the law was overturned in 2012, “Arizona had developed a negative reputation” compared to other states that “were more open and simply less difficult to work in.”

Dunn, a Democrat, expressed his support for Vice President Kamala Harris, but other construction executives appear more divided. Marek, a “lifelong Republican,” declined to disclose his voting intentions, noting that “many Republicans are not supporting Trump.”

Taylor also refrained from stating his preferred candidate but acknowledged Trump’s ability to “get things done.”

He concluded, “There are many other economic issues we face daily that have nothing to do with immigration reform. I am not solely focused on one policy.”

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Source: cnbc‍