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SUMMARY
As investors eagerly await Eli Lilly's Q4 2023 results and 2024 guidance set to be announced on February 6, all eyes are on the company's blockbuster weight-loss drug Zepbound.
The industry is abuzz with anticipation, keen to assess the full impact of Zepbound's launch. Since receiving FDA approval in November, the new medication has already sparked fierce competition in the anti-obesity market, hinting at a potential upheaval in the months ahead.
With claims of a staggering 25,000 new prescriptions per week since its late December debut, Zepbound has surpassed even Lilly's own projections, demonstrating early market adoption that exceeds expectations.
Zepbound is a first-of-its-kind dual agonist, meaning it targets two important gut hormones involved in appetite control and metabolism: GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) and GIP (gastric inhibitory polypeptide). This dual action is what sets it apart from existing GLP-1R agonists like Wegovy.
However, the surge in demand has raised concerns about supply constraints, potentially impacting Zepbound's availability in 2024. In a strategic move, Lilly has priced Zepbound at a 21% discount ($1,060 per injection) compared to Novo Nordisk's Wegovy ($1,350), the reigning therapy.
Backed by Phase III trial results indicating a slight edge in efficacy, with an average weight loss of 22.5% compared to Wegovy's 17.4%, Zepbound presents a compelling value proposition for both patients and insurers. The company has also indicated its plans to expand the footprint of this drug to other markets.
Data and analytics company GlobalData has already labelled Zepbound a “game changer”, asserting its potential to challenge Wegovy's status as the first-line treatment. “Its arrival raises the bar for GLP-1 agonists and is poised to challenge Wegovy's status as the first-line treatment,” said Sara Reci, Senior Pharma Analyst at GlobalData.
By 2031, analysts predict Zepbound will reach $4.1 billion in US sales, gradually closing the gap on Wegovy's projected $8.1 billion, according to GlobalData.
The quest for more effective weight-loss therapies remains a driving force for pharmaceutical companies, especially with the obesity market projected to reach $27.6 billion in the US by 2031. Both Lilly and Novo Nordisk have encountered manufacturing challenges and drug shortages, prompting investments in expanding production capacity.
In an open letter dated January 4, 2024, Eli Lilly addressed the use of Zepbound. The company reaffirmed its commitment to providing innovative treatment options for obesity while prioritising patient safety.
The company said that Tirzepatide, marketed under the brand name Zepbound is indicated for adults with obesity or overweight who also have at least one weight-related additional condition. It should be used with a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity under the supervision of a licensed healthcare professional.
Lilly also warned against the use of compounded tirzepatide products, emphasizing that Zepbound is only available from and manufactured by Lilly. Compounded products claiming to contain tirzepatide have not undergone FDA review and may expose patients to potentially serious health risks. However, not available currently, India can also prove to be a major market for this drug as doctors have said there is a rising demand of weight loss drugs and anti diabetic drugs are also being considered for reducing weight.
“These are high impact high yield drugs and slowly becoming front runner in diabetes treatment, not only because of weight loss potential but also their benefits on heart, kidneys, and liver. Their use will certainly be incremental. However dual usage of these medications for diabetes and obesity can cause nausea and vomiting, limited mostly to the first three weeks of usage,” Dr Anoop Misra, Chairman of Fortis-C-DOC hospital in Delhi.
“These cannot be used in those with family history of thyroid cancer or in individuals with history of pancreatitis. There are some signals of “sluggishness of intestines" (intestinal paralysis” and depression, but these are not definite or occur, if at all, in very few individuals,” said Misra who is also the Director at National Diabetes, Obesity & Cholesterol Foundation.
To protect patients, Lilly has initiated legal action against entities involved in the marketing, sale, and distribution of non-FDA approved compounded tirzepatide products. The company urges patients who suspect they have received or used counterfeit tirzepatide to consult their healthcare providers and report any concerns to the Lilly Answers Center.
The safety summary provided for Zepbound outlines important warnings and precautions, including potential risks such as thyroid tumors, pancreatitis, low blood sugar, allergic reactions, kidney problems, gallbladder issues, stomach problems, changes in vision, and depression or suicidal thoughts.
Source: Business Today
