Europe's 2030 Energy: Fully Electric, Well-Funded, and Flexible

By 2030, Europe's energy system is projected to be fully electric, well-funded, and highly flexible. This transformation aims to enhance sustainability and innovation across the energy sector, ensuring efficient and resilient power sources to meet future demands. The shift towards a fully electric system highlights Europe's commitment to reducing carbon emissions and embracing renewable energy technologies, supported by substantial investments and adaptable infrastructure.

The integration of solar power, widespread electrification, and increased flexibility can significantly enhance Europe's energy transition efforts.

The sun is shining brightly on Europe's energy sector. The European Union is on track to become a global solar powerhouse, with ambitious goals of reaching 750 GW by 2030.

However, the sun doesn't always shine. The challenge now lies in creating a system that can handle the fluctuating nature of renewables, transforming energy management as we know it.

For this special Euronews live policy event, Europe’s Flexibility Revolution: Taking the Next Step in the Energy Transition, we invited the CEO of SolarPower Europe, Walburga Hemetsberger, to present findings from the Mission Solar 2040 report. This report outlines how Europe is progressing on the road to decarbonization and its necessary next steps, with a particular emphasis on solar power.

Following Hemetsberger’s talk, Robert Hodgson, the Senior Environment and Energy Reporter at Euronews’ new policy unit, led a panel discussion with industry leaders, representatives, and policymakers to further discuss what needs to be done to ensure a smooth energy transition.

Among the distinguished panellists were Francois Beaude, Strategy Lead from the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER); Juan Rivier Abbad, Head of Renewables Regulation at Iberdrola; Stefano Grassi, EU Energy Commission Head; and Sonya Twohig, Secretary-General of the European network of Transmission System Operators (ENTSO-E).

Solar power growth The success of solar is evident on rooftops across Europe. From 1 gigawatt (GW) of installed capacity in 2004 to 269 GW in 2023, Europe is well on its way to reaching its 2030 goals.

“Solar PV is on a mission to support Europe to become the most secure, cleanest and most prosperous continent in the world,” explained Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe. “However, this is only possible if we embark on a flexibility revolution.”

Flexibility, Hemetsberger explains, is a significant factor in achieving Europe’s decarbonization goals, alongside a drive for quick electrification. Mission Solar 2040 outlines the "flexibility revolution" as not only the kinds of flexibility we can see but also how we enable flexibility, for example through battery storage solutions at home and on the grid.

Three scenarios for solar power To illustrate Europe’s future, SolarPower Europe worked with leading European planners to model three different scenarios for 2040, alongside projected figures on energy system costs, energy prices, total capacity, and CO2 reductions. These are:

1. Solar as Usual: Limited flexibility and electrification.
2. Solar and Flexibility: Increased focus on battery storage and cross-border grids.
3. Solar, Flexibility, and Electrification: Includes electrification of vehicles, heat pumps, and electrolyzers.

Scenario three – solar plus flexibility and electrification – is Hemetsberger’s dream scenario. Alongside electrification, flexibility on the demand side is activated, adding lots of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and electrolyzers to the market.

In this case, Europe’s goal of 750 gigawatts by 2023 is not only attainable but surpassable. “We could reach more than 1.2 terawatts by 2030,” Hemetsberger explains. “And we could double that by 2040, reaching more than 2.4 terawatts by 2040. But it needs the next steps to be taken. It needs the flexibility revolution.”

Benefits of flexibility and electrification According to projections, if Europe increases supply and demand flexibility and achieves its electrification goals, Europe could see a radical reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, up to 151 million tonnes of CO2 reductions annually by 2030 and as much as 555 million tonnes by 2040.

Boston Brand Media also found that cost savings would also be significant at both a system and consumer level. Projections state that €160 billion in energy system costs could be cut annually by 2040, while consumers would see a 33 percent reduction in their electricity costs by 2040.

Based on SolarPower Europe’s dream scenario, electricity costs across Europe would drop by 25 percent by 2030 and 33 percent by 2040.

Unlocking the Flexibility Revolution As well as projections, SolarPower Europe also offers a comprehensive action plan to enable Europe to meet its climate and energy transition goals. This plan includes four key aspects:

Setting new EU targets for renewables, storage, and grids for both 2030 and 2040 Hemetsberger emphasized the need to set new targets for renewables complemented by grid storage targets, not just for 2030 but also for 2040. While renewable targets for 2030 exist, flexibility targets are still lacking.

Stefano Grassi, Head of Cabinet for the Commissioner of Energy, added that the focus of the Green Deal journey is replacing fossil fuels with green technologies and the importance of enabling conditions, targets, incentives, and financing. The context around generation, including grids and flexibility, is crucial.

Improving system modeling capacities Hemetsberger highlighted the importance of avoiding planning failures that could risk the energy transition. Proper funding for National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP) at both European and national levels is essential.

Hemetsberger argued that the European Commission should improve planning and modeling processes with high-quality tools for reliable needs assessments. Most member states have high ambitions for solar but lack similar ambition for improving grids, storage capacity, and overall flexibility.

Sonya Twohig, Secretary-General of ENTSO-E, stressed the importance of learning from the last five to ten years of NECPs to plan Europe's power system and network effectively.

Unlocking investment in decentralized, large-scale, and flexible solutions The debate panel discussed market incentives to unlock investments in flexibility across a decentralized, large-scale, and seasonal energy system. Francois Beaude of ACER emphasized the importance of making investments in renewables, flexibility, and grids cost-effective for citizens and companies.

To attract investors to green technologies, Hemetsberger suggested reducing curtailment (wasted energy during grid congestion) and strengthening the solar capture price (earnings for solar investors). He projected that investors would earn 71 percent more in 2030 and 54 percent in 2040, while consumers would save between 25 and 33 percent on electricity bills.

Adopt an EU Electrification Action and Investment Plan SolarPower Europe urged European leaders to adopt an electrification action and investment plan within 100 days of the new mandate. Sonya Twohig called for strong leadership in monitoring and rolling out these plans on a vast scale.

Grassi tempered expectations, indicating that an electrification action plan might not be seen in the first 100 days due to the need to settle current reforms. He suggested the right time for reflection would be when setting the 2040 decarbonization target.

Now is not the time for stalling Europe faces a significant challenge in meeting its decarbonization goals. Achieving a 42 percent share of renewable electricity by 2030 will require nearly doubling the current capacity. In the electricity sector, the target is roughly 70 percent by the end of the decade.

The Mission Solar 2040 report outlines a path to achieving these goals through increased grid flexibility, immediate electrification targets, substantial investment, and forward-thinking policy incentives. Despite the challenges, the panelists remain optimistic, guided by the ambitious projections in the report.

For questions or comments write to writers@bostonbrandmedia.com

Source: euronews‍