How to Prepare for and Avoid Surprises from Extreme Weather

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A recent study published in Nature Communications focuses on helping communities anticipate extreme weather events that have never been documented in modern history.

Researchers from the Climate Adaptation Services Foundation, the University of Reading, and other international institutions have developed new approaches to go beyond conventional weather records, which typically span only the past century.

The study highlights how nature’s archives - such as tree rings - along with overlooked historical documents, can provide centuries' worth of climate data that modern instruments fail to capture.

Lead author Timo Kelder stated: “We've traditionally assumed extreme weather is only as severe as what we've recorded since weather stations were introduced. However, our research demonstrates that weather models can be used to analyze climate patterns from hundreds or even thousands of years ago, revealing the true extent of possible extremes.”

A New Toolkit for Scientists and Policymakers

The study outlines four key methods for creating a more comprehensive understanding of extreme weather:

• Examining conventional weather records
• Analyzing natural and historical archives, such as tree rings
• Constructing “what-if” scenarios based on past weather events
• Using climate models to simulate physically possible extremes

Tree rings proved to be particularly insightful, as each ring preserves a snapshot of the climate for a given year.

By studying these natural records, researchers reconstructed 850 years of drought patterns in northwestern China, identifying extreme weather events that modern records would not have captured.

Additionally, historical archives uncovered past weather extremes, such as an exceptionally hot June in 1846 in Durham, UK, and an extraordinarily wet September in 1774 in Oxford - both surpassing any records from the last 250 years.

The Need for Adaptation

The study underscores that by leveraging these advanced methods, communities can better prepare for unprecedented weather events.

The findings support three key areas of adaptation:

• Enhancing early warning systems
• Strengthening infrastructure
• Implementing transformative social measures to reduce vulnerability

The researchers conclude that relying solely on limited modern records leaves us unprepared for future climate extremes.

Co-author Dorothy Heinrich from the University of Reading remarked: “Unprecedented weather doesn’t just set new records - it disrupts communities, damages infrastructure, and threatens lives. When the unimaginable happens, lack of preparation leads to disaster. But science allows us to foresee the unimaginable, identify risks, and take action. The speed and effectiveness of our adaptation today will shape our future.”

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Source: sciencedaily‍