"South African Voter Loyalty: Shifting Support in 2024"

Boston Brand Media brings you the latest - "Analysis reveals the dynamic nature of South African voter allegiance during the 2024 elections, highlighting significant shifts in support among political parties. This examination underscores the ongoing evolution of political preferences among citizens, echoing trends observed in previous electoral cycles. Understanding these fluctuations provides insights into the complex landscape of South African democracy and sheds light on the factors influencing voter behavior."

For those observing casually, South Africa's 2024 national and provincial elections, signaling a shift towards national coalition governance, might seem indicative of new electoral tendencies. However, this perception is inaccurate.

While the recent change in voting behavior is the most significant since the advent of democratic elections, there has been a growing trend of voter fluidity, characterized by individuals changing their voting preferences from one election to another, since at least 2016.

The 2024 general election marks a pivotal moment in South Africa's democracy, as it's the first time in three decades that the African National Congress (ANC) failed to secure the majority needed to form a government, garnering only 40.2% of the vote.

The opposition Democratic Alliance maintained a similar vote share to 2019, with 21.8%, while the Economic Freedom Fighters experienced a slight decrease from 10.8% in 2019 to 9.5% in 2024.

Boston Brand Media also found a notable presence in this election, was the newly emerged uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MK Party), which garnered 14.6% of the national vote and secured the highest percentage of votes in KwaZulu-Natal, falling just short of a majority.

As sociologists, our research over the past decade, including exit polls and post-election surveys, has focused on understanding voter behavior, including party allegiance, abstention rates, and the reasons behind these choices. While ongoing research delves into the 2024 elections, previous studies provide insights into patterns of voter loyalty, switching between parties, and voter abstention. These insights shed light on two significant trends observed in the 2024 elections.

Initially, there was a notable rise in voter abstention, with 41.6% of registered voters opting not to participate in the 2024 elections. This marks a significant increase of 7.6 percentage points from the 2019 national elections, where 34.0% of registered voters abstained from voting.

Additionally, there was a discernible shift away from the African National Congress (ANC), evidenced by its declining support from 57.5% in 2019 to 40.2% in 2024.

What we did

In 2021, following the local government elections, we conducted a post-election telephone survey with 3,905 registered voters residing in five metropolitan municipalities: Johannesburg, Tshwane (encompassing Pretoria), Ethekwini (including Durban), Cape Town, and Nelson Mandela Bay (covering Gqeberha). While not nationally representative, this sample provides insight into key urban population centers.

The survey delved into participants' voting histories across the last three elections: the 2016 local government elections, the 2019 national and provincial elections, and the 2021 local government elections.

Our focus was on understanding the influence of "race" in shaping the voting preferences of the South African electorate, given the enduring impact of race on various aspects of post-apartheid life.

Racialised fluidity

In our exploration of how race influences voting choices, we employ the term "racialised fluidity." By "racialised," we emphasize that, on a collective level, Black African, Coloured, Indian, and white individuals tend to exhibit distinct voting patterns. However, we also observe significant variability in individual voting behavior across elections, hence the term "fluidity."

Based on our 2021 research, we discovered that 76% of Black Africans in our sample had voted for the ANC at least once between 2016 and 2021. This contrasts starkly with other demographic groups: only 27% of Indian respondents, 22% of Coloured respondents, and 7% of white respondents supported the ANC at any point during the same period.

Conversely, we found that 93% of white respondents, 78% of Coloured respondents, and 73% of Indian respondents had voted for the opposition Democratic Alliance at least once between 2016 and 2021.

Interestingly, white voters exhibited the highest party loyalty in the South African electorate, with 52% consistently supporting the Democratic Alliance across all three elections. Comparatively smaller proportions of Coloured and Indian respondents demonstrated loyalty to the Democratic Alliance, at 25% and 13%, respectively.

In contrast, only 32% of Black African respondents exhibited loyalty to the ANC throughout the same period. A quarter (25%) of Black African participants had never supported the ANC between 2016 and 2021. This subset tended to be younger, more educated, and more affluent compared to those who had supported the ANC.

While three-quarters (76%) of Black African respondents had voted for the ANC at some point between 2016 and 2021, this did not imply steadfast loyalty to the party: 44% oscillated between voting for the ANC, abstaining, or supporting another party.

In 2021, over a quarter (27%) of Black African participants who had previously voted for the ANC opted to abstain rather than reaffirm their support for the ANC, while 8% shifted allegiance to an opposition party. Notably, younger voters were more likely to abstain after previously voting for the ANC.

Across all racial groups, 50.3% of respondents exhibited fluctuating voting behavior between supporting the ANC, opposition parties, or abstaining. This variability underscores the enduring nature of voter fluidity.

These insights aid in interpreting certain aspects of the 2024 elections.

Firstly, voter turnout decreased, with only 27.8 million out of an estimated 42 million eligible voters registering, and just 16.3 million casting their votes. Turnout among the eligible voting-age population stood at 38.8%, lower than the estimated 49.0% in 2019. For a substantial portion of the electorate, abstaining may have been preferable to supporting a party opposing the ANC.

Secondly, it's probable that some former ANC supporters opted to switch their allegiance to an opposition party. Confirmation and a deeper understanding of this shift will require data from the 2024 survey. Nonetheless, considering that 69.0% of all votes cast for the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party originated from KwaZulu-Natal, a region traditionally loyal to the ANC, it's plausible that many voters migrated from the ANC to uMkhonto we Sizwe.

Future fluidity

The outcome of the 2024 national elections suggests a potential increase in voter fluidity, with voters having a broader array of opposition parties to consider than ever before.

The sustainability of uMkhonto we Sizwe's electoral progress remains uncertain. Other opposition parties, like the Congress of the People and Action SA, have demonstrated that building and maintaining electoral momentum can be challenging.

A growing concern revolves around the expanding segments of the electorate opting out of the electoral process. However, our research indicates that abstainers often re-engage in subsequent elections. Hence, there's a possibility for political parties to reclaim lost support by addressing the needs and aspirations of the South African populace.

For questions or comments write to writers@bostonbrandmedia.com

Source: Theconversation‍