US Election Polls: Who Leads, Harris or Trump?

The latest US election polls reveal a close race between Harris and Trump. Stay informed with current voter trends, analysis, and updates on who holds the lead in this crucial election. With both candidates campaigning vigorously, find out where they stand in the polls and how their support is shaping up as the election approaches. Discover key insights into this head-to-head political battle.

On 5 November, US voters will head to the polls to choose their next president.

The election was initially expected to be a repeat of 2020, but things changed in July when President Joe Biden withdrew and backed Vice-President Kamala Harris. The major question now is whether the US will elect its first female president or give Donald Trump a second term.

As the election day nears, we’ll monitor the polls and observe how the campaign impacts the race for the White House. 

Who is leading the national polls? 

Since entering the race at the end of July, Harris has maintained a lead over Trump in the national polling averages, as shown in the chart below, with figures rounded to the nearest whole number. The candidates faced off in a televised debate in Pennsylvania on 10 September, attracting over 67 million viewers. Most national polls conducted in the week following the debate indicated a slight improvement for Harris, with her lead growing from 2.5 points on the debate day to 3.3 points a week later.

This small increase was largely due to a dip in Trump’s numbers, as his average, which had been rising before the debate, fell by half a point afterward. The poll tracker chart below displays these slight shifts, with trend lines illustrating changes in averages and dots representing each candidate’s individual poll results. While national polls offer a general idea of a candidate’s popularity, they don't necessarily predict the election outcome accurately.

This is because the US uses an electoral college system, where states have a certain number of votes based on their population size. A candidate needs 270 out of the total 538 electoral votes to win.

Although the US has 50 states, most consistently support the same party, leaving only a few where both candidates have a real chance. These are known as battleground or swing states, where the election is decided.

What is the electoral college? Who is leading in the swing state polls?

Currently, polls in the seven battleground states are extremely close, with only one or two percentage points separating the candidates. Pennsylvania is particularly important because it has the most electoral votes among the seven battlegrounds, making it crucial for reaching the 270-vote threshold. The dynamics of the race shifted when Harris became the Democratic nominee; on the day Biden dropped out, he was trailing Trump by almost five points on average in these swing states.

It’s important to note that there are fewer state polls than national ones, so the data is limited, and each poll has a margin of error that can influence the results. However, analyzing trends since Harris joined the race can highlight the states where she appears to be in a stronger position, according to polling averages. The chart below shows Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since early August, though the margins remain narrow.

All three states had been Democratic strongholds until Trump turned them red in 2016. Biden won them back in 2020, and if Harris can do the same, she will be positioned to win this year’s election.

How are these averages calculated?

The figures in the charts above come from polling averages created by 538, a polling analysis site associated with ABC News. They compile data from various polls conducted nationally and in battleground states. As part of their quality assurance, 538 only includes polls from organizations that adhere to specific standards, like transparency about sample size, poll timing, and methodology (phone, text, online, etc.).

Can we trust the polls?

Current polls indicate a tight race between Harris and Trump in swing states, making it challenging to predict a clear winner.  Polls underestimated Trump’s support in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Pollsters are trying to address this issue by adjusting their methods to better represent the voter population. These adjustments are complex, and pollsters must also make informed estimates about factors such as voter turnout on 5 November.

For questions or comments write to writers@bostonbrandmedia.com

Source: BBC‍