Conab Projects Drop in Brazil's Coffee Production for 2024

Conab has projected a decline in Brazil's coffee production for 2024, raising concerns about potential impacts on the global coffee supply. The forecast reflects ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector, including adverse weather conditions and economic factors affecting farmers. This anticipated drop could lead to increased coffee prices and influence market dynamics, prompting attention from industry stakeholders and coffee enthusiasts alike.

The Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), Brazil's National Supply Company, has released its third survey on the country's coffee harvest for 2024. The report estimates production at 54.79 million processed bags, indicating a 0.5% decrease from last year's figures. This decline highlights the significant effects of adverse weather conditions on production expectations, illustrating the challenges faced by the coffee industry this year. Conab noted that weather played a role between its second and third surveys, despite some estimates suggesting good crop potential.

Weather issues, including drought and high temperatures, have negatively affected productivity, bringing the national average coffee yield down to 28.8 bags per hectare, a decline of 1.9% from last year.

For arabica coffee, production is expected to reach 39.59 million bags, reflecting a 1.7% increase. Minas Gerais, the leading coffee-producing state, is projected to yield 27.69 million bags, although this represents a 3.4% decrease due to ongoing drought conditions.

In São Paulo, despite the adverse weather, production is anticipated to rise by 8.2% compared to 2023, potentially reaching 5.44 million bags this year. A similar trend is observed in arabica-producing regions such as Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, and the Cerrado area of Bahia, where projected increases are lower than previously expected.

In contrast, conilon coffee production is forecasted to decline by 6%, totaling 15.2 million bags. Espírito Santo is expected to produce approximately 9.97 million bags, a decrease of 1.9%. Significant drops of 16.4% in Rondônia and 13.3% in the Atlantic region of Bahia are anticipated due to reduced productivity and cultivated areas.

In 2024, the area dedicated to coffee cultivation for both arabica and conilon will cover 2.25 million hectares, with 1.9 million hectares in production, marking a 1.4% increase. However, the area under formation has decreased by 4.5%, totaling 345.16 thousand hectares.

Despite these challenges, coffee prices remain attractive for producers due to a limited supply. Brazil's coffee exports have soared, with 32.1 million 60-kilo bags shipped from January to August 2024, reflecting a 40.1% increase compared to the same period in 2023. Conab noted that these figures are robust, suggesting Brazil may surpass its 2020 export record of 43.9 million bags.

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Source: refreshmentmag‍