Study: Human emissions delayed Earth’s next ice age—but for how long?

A recent study reveals that human-caused emissions have significantly delayed Earth's next ice age. However, scientists are still uncertain about how long this postponement will last and what the long-term consequences might be for the planet's climate.

The scientists examined Earth’s orbit, tilt, and wobble to solve a mystery that had puzzled researchers for decades.

A recent study suggests that Earth’s next ice age should naturally begin within the next 11,000 years. However, human activity may significantly delay this process by thousands of years.

Researchers have long understood that changes in Earth’s orbit play a role in transitioning between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods. Yet, until now, they were unable to determine which specific orbital factors had the greatest impact on these cycles.

Led by the University of Cardiff, the research team analyzed Earth’s climate patterns over the past million years and compared them to shifts in the planet’s tilt, wobble, and orbital shape around the Sun.

Their findings, published in the journal Science, provide valuable insights into how these factors influence ice age cycles and reveal how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have disrupted this natural rhythm.

“The consistency of our findings allowed us to accurately predict when each interglacial period over the past million years would occur and how long it would last,” explained lead researcher Stephen Barker, a professor at the University of Cardiff, in an interview with AFP.

Predicting the Next Ice Age

Over the last million years, Earth has cycled between ice ages and warmer periods. The most recent ice age ended around 11,700 years ago, ushering in the Holocene era, a time of relative climate stability that has supported human civilization.

Since the 1970s, scientists have attempted to determine when the next glacial period will begin, but pinpointing an exact timeline has remained challenging.
While earlier studies focused on correlating specific orbital changes with ice age onset, Barker’s team took a broader approach by examining long-term temperature patterns rather than just the start of ice ages.

Their research revealed that every ice age over the past 900,000 years has occurred at a precise combination of changes in Earth’s tilt, wobble, and orbit.

“These findings confirm that natural climate cycles, which occur over tens of thousands of years, are largely predictable rather than random or chaotic,” noted study co-author Lorraine Lisiecki, a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

Without human influence, the next glacial period would have naturally begun within 11,000 years and lasted until about 66,000 years from now, according to Barker. However, with atmospheric carbon dioxide levels now at their highest in at least 800,000 years, this timeline has been significantly altered.

A Lasting Climate Shift

The study underscores the profound and long-term impact of human activity on Earth’s climate. While discussions about climate change often focus on the next few decades, this research highlights consequences that will unfold over geological time scales.

Barker cautioned against viewing the delay of an ice age as beneficial. While an ice age would pose challenges for human civilization, the ongoing rise in greenhouse gas emissions is already triggering severe effects, including rising sea levels, extreme weather, and loss of biodiversity.

With human actions now disrupting natural climate cycles that have shaped Earth for millennia, the researchers plan to investigate how continued fossil fuel consumption will further alter these patterns. Their findings suggest the consequences could be substantial.

If carbon emissions continue at their current rate, Antarctica could become ice-free within 8,000 years, leading to a sea-level rise of approximately 70 meters, the researchers warn.

"Instead of glaciers, much of the world will be underwater," Barker emphasized.

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Source: euronews‍